Falanqaynta hoos u dhaca ba'an ee qiimaha aluminium ee Abril 7, 2025: Siyaasadda canshuuraha ee Mareykanka waxay kicisaa jahawareerka suuqyada adduunka
Dib u eegista dhacdada
Abriil 7, 2025, oo ah maalinta ganacsiga ugu horraysa kadib fasaxa Bandhiga Qingming ee Shiinaha, suuqa aluminiumka caalamiga ah waxa uu la kulmay isbeddelo rabshado wata. Qiimaha barta aluminiumka ee Sarrifka Birta London (LME) ayaa hoos u dhacay 8.2% hal maalin gudaheed, isagoo ku dhacay hoos u dhaca ugu weyn tan iyo 2021; Qandaraaska aluminium ee ugu weyn ee Isweydaarsiga Mustaqbalka ee Shanghai (SHFE) ayaa hoos u dhacay 6.5% isla mar ahaantaana, oraahduna waxay ku dhacday RMB 16,800 halkii ton. Kiciyeyaasha tooska ah ee qulqulkan ayaa ahaa ku dhawaaqistii dawladda Maraykanku 3-dii Abriil si ay ugu soo rogto 25% tacriif ciqaabeed aluminium iyo aluminiumka laga keeno, kaas oo daboolaya qaybaha sida aluminium cayriin, go'yaal aluminium ah, strips iyo foils, iyo aluminium dib loo warshadeeyey. Siyaasaddu waxay dhaqan geli doontaa laga bilaabo Abriil 15.
1. Asalkii hore iyo ujeedadii laga lahaa hordhaca siyaasadda canshuuraha ee Maraykanka
Ilaalinta warshadaha maxalliga ah iyo kala-goynta istaraatiijiga ah
Sababta rasmiga ah ee Maraykanku u soo rogayo canshuuraha markan waa "in la xakameeyo qallooca suuqa caalamiga ah ee awoodda Shiinaha ee aluminium", laakiin caqli-galnimada hoose waxay ku jirtaa la-shaqeynta istaraatiijiyada soo celinta wax soo saarka. 2025, Xeerka dhimista Sicir-bararka Maraykanka ayaa si buuxda loo dhaqan gelin doonaa. Baahida aluminium ee baabuurta tamarta cusub, sawir-qaadista iyo warshadaha kale ayaa kor u kici doona, halka awoodda wax soo saarka aluminium elektrolytic ah ee gudaha Mareykanka ay ka dhigan tahay kaliya 5% adduunka (xogta 2024), waxayna aad ugu tiirsan tahay soo dejinta. Iyadoo loo marayo caqabadaha tacriifada, Maraykanku wuxuu isku dayaa inuu ku qasbo shirkadaha hoose si ay u iibsadaan ilaha aluminiumka gudaha, iyada oo la wiiqayo booska ugu sarreeya ee Shiinaha ee silsiladda warshadaha aluminium ee caalamiga ah.
Tartanka kheyraadka ee hoos yimaada isbeddelka cagaaran ee caalamiga ah
Aluminium, oo ah walxo udub dhexaad u ah isbeddelka khafiifka ah iyo tamarta (qadarka aluminium ee loo isticmaalo baabuurta korantada waa 2-3 jeer baabuurta shidaalka), waxay noqotay diiradda tartanka kheyraadka istiraatiijiga ah ee ka dhexeeya quwadaha waaweyn. Tallaabada Mareykanka ayaa looga golleeyahay in lagu hubiyo badbaadada alaabteeda ceeriin ee silsiladda warshadaha tamarta cusub, iyadoo lala kaashanayo nidaamka “saaxiibtinimo ee dhoofinta xeebaha”, waxay ku riixi doontaa silsiladda sahayda aluminiumka inay u janjeerto dhanka xulafada sida Kanada iyo Bariga Dhexe.
2. Falcelinta suuqa iyo habka gudbinta
Iibinta argagaxa muddada gaaban
Siyaasadaha tarifku waxay si toos ah u saameeyaan rajada ganacsiga caalamiga ah. Sida soo saaraha aluminium ee adduunka ugu weyn (58% wax soo saarka 2024), wax soo saarka Shiinaha ee Maraykanka ayaa ah 15% wadarta guud ee dhoofinta. Suuqa ayaa ka walwalsan in alaabada aluminium ee Shiinaha ay lumin doonaan suuqa Mareykanka sababo la xiriira canshuuraha, taasoo horseedaysa kor u kaca rajada laga qabo sahayda muddada gaaban. Marka lagu daro sii daynta xoogga leh ee dareeraha ka dib fasaxii Bandhiga Qingming, isbedbedelka qiimaha ayaa la kordhiyay.
Garqaadka suuqa kala iibsiga iyo wareejinta alaabada
Xogtu waxay muujinaysaa in alaabada aluminium ee LME ay kor u kacday 120,000 tan hal maalin gudaheed, oo ah mid sare oo saddex sano ah. Sababta ugu weyn ayaa ah in ganacsatadu ay si deg deg ah ugu wareejiyeen alaabada aluminium ee asal ahaan loo qorsheeyay in loo dhoofiyo Mareykanka suuqa mustaqbalka si loo gaarsiiyo, halka shirkadaha hoose ay hakiyeen wax iibsiga sababtoo ah hubanti la'aanta qiimaha, sameynta jawaab celin taban oo ah "hoos u dhaca qiimaha alaabada".
Isbeddellada sarrifka RMB waxay kordhiyaan cadaadiska
Iyada oo ay saamaysay nacaybka khatarta ah, sarifka RMB ee xeebaha marka loo eego doolarka Maraykanka ayaa hoos u dhacay 0.8% isla maalintaas, taas oo sii niyad jabisay qiimaha aluminiumka LME ee lagu qiimeeyay doolarka Mareykanka. Isla mar ahaantaana, faa'iidada dhoofinta ee shirkadaha aluminium ee Shiinaha ayaa si weyn hoos ugu dhacay sababtoo ah labanlaabista sarifka lacagaha iyo tacriifadaha.
3. Saamaynta muddada-dheer: Silsiladda sahayda aluminium ee caalamiga ah waxay dardargelinaysaa dib-u-qaabaynta
Qaab ganacsi oo heer gobol ah ayaa la sameeyay
Caqabadaha canshuuraha Mareykanka waxay ku qasbi doonaan qulqulka ganacsiga aluminiumka inay kala duwanaadaan: Khayraadka aluminium ee Shiinaha ayaa laga yaabaa inay u beddelaan wax badan Koonfur-bari Aasiya, Bariga Dhexe iyo waddamada "Suunka iyo Waddada"; Yurub waxay kordhin kartaa soo dejinta aluminiumka Ruushka (in kasta oo khataraha siyaasadeed); iyo suuqa Mareykanka waxaa u badan alaab-qeybiyeyaal maxalli ah sida Kanada iyo Brazil. Dib-u-qaybinta faa'iidada silsiladda warshadaha Kharashaadka tacriifada waxaa loo gudbin karaa kor iyo hoos. Shirkadaha baabuurta ee Maraykanka ayaa sheegay inay raadin doonaan inay la saxeexdaan heshiisyo qiimo go'an oo waqti-dheer ah alaab-qeybiyeyaasha aluminiumka, halka shirkadaha Shiinaha ee aluminiumka elektiroonigga ah ay u baahan yihiin inay xakameeyaan khatarta iyaga oo kordhinaya saamiga dhoofinta ee alaabta qiimaha sare leh (sida aluminium ee hawada).
Caymiska cagaaran iyo tacriifada kaarboonka
Habka hagaajinta xudduudaha Kaarboon (CBAM) ee Midowga Yurub qorsheynayo inuu hirgeliyo 2026 wuxuu sii kordhin karaa kharashka dhoofinta shirkadaha aluminium ee Shiinaha (Shiinaha elektaroonigga aluminium ee kaarboonka kaarboonka halkii ton waa saddex jeer ka Yurub). Qiimaha aluminiumka caalamiga ah waxa uu u kala saari karaa laba hab oo qiimo: "Kaarboon sare" iyo "kaarboon hoose".
4. Saadaasha isbeddellada qiimaha mustaqbalka
Mudo gaaban (1-3 bilood)
Ka dib markii dareenka suuqu dejiyo, qiimaha aluminiumku wuxuu dib u soo celin karaa farsamo ahaan, laakiin xoogga dib u soo celinta waxay ku xiran tahay hirgelinta dhabta ah ee canshuuraha Mareykanka. Haddii shirkadaha Shiinuhu ay ku xad-gudbaan tacriifadaha iyada oo loo marayo ganacsiga dib-u-Dhoofinta (sida ka-hortagga iyada oo loo marayo Mexico iyo Vietnam), cadaadiska saadka qaarkood waa la yareyn karaa.
Muddada dhexdhexaadka ah (6-12 bilood)
Isbeddelka hoos u dhaca ee xarunta qiimaha way adag tahay in la beddelo. Marka loo eego xisaabinta moodelka Goldman Sachs, tacriifooyinka Maraykanku waxay horseedi karaan koror 1.2 milyan oo tan oo dheeraad ah sanadlaha ah ee suuqa aluminiumka adduunka, oo u dhiganta 2% isticmaalka caalamiga ah ee 2024. Qiimaha ayaa hoos ugu dhici kara $1,800 halkii ton (hadda ku saabsan $2,200).
Muddada dheer (2-5 sano)
Baahida tamarta cusub (gaar ahaan aluminium ee baakadaha batteriga adag ee gobolka iyo kaydinta hydrogen iyo qalabka gaadiidka) waxay noqon doontaa doorsoomiyaha ugu muhiimsan. Haddii heerka kobaca baahida sannadlaha ah ee caalamiga ahi uu ka sarreeyo 4% (3.1% 2024), oo ay weheliso siyaasadda beddelka awoodda Shiinaha (30% ee baabiinta awoodda gadaale), qiimaha aluminiumka ayaa la filayaa inuu ku soo laabto kanaalka sare ka dib 2027.
Gabagabo: Fursadaha istiraatijiyadeed ee qaska
Qulqulka qiimaha aluminiumka waqtigan ma aha oo kaliya microcosm ee ciyaaraha juqraafiga, laakiin sidoo kale wuxuu muujinayaa xanuunka dib-u-habaynta kheyraadka ee kala-guurka tamarta caalamiga ah. Shirkadaha Shiinaha, dardargelinta naqshadeynta tignoolajiyada dhalaalka aluminium-kaarboon-yar (sida aluminium tamarta tamarta ah, aluminium dib loo warshadeeyay), xoojinta iskaashiga awoodda ee wadamada xubnaha ka ah RCEP, iyo kor u qaadida tartanka alaabada sare waxay noqon doontaa furaha wareegga wareegga. Marka la eego heerka caalamiga ah, sida loo dhiso nidaam maamul kheyraad dhinacyo badan leh oo tixgelinaya badbaadada iyo waxtarka labadaba waxay noqon doontaa su'aal muhiim ah oo laga jawaabayo si looga fogaado "dagaal qabow oo kheyraad ah."
