Falanqaynta hoos udhaca fiisada ah ee qiimaha aluminiumka ee qiimaha aluminium ee ah Abriil 7, 2025: Siyaasadda Lacagta Mareykanka ee Mareykanka ayaa kicisay naxdinta suuqa adduunka
Dib u eegista Dhacdada
Bishii Abriil 7, 2025, maalintii ugu horreysay ee ganacsiga ka dib fasaxa dabbaaldegga ee Shiinaha, ee suuqa adduunka ee adduunka ee khibradda leh isbeddelada rabshadaha. Qiimaha aluminium ee aluminium-ka ee Bisha London ee London (LME) ayaa hoos u dhacay 8.2% hal maalin, oo garaacay dhibicda ugu weyn tan iyo 2021; Qandaraaska ugu weyn ee Aluminium ee Mustaqbalka Shanghai (Shfe) ayaa hoos u dhacay 6.5% isla waqtigaas, oraahda ayaa ku dhacday RMB 16,800 tan kasta. Suuqa tooska ah ee goyntan ayaa ahayd ku dhawaaqida dawladda Mareykanka ee 3-da Abriil si loo soo rogo 25% ciqaab ciqaab ah Siyaasaddu waxay dhaqan galeysaa laga bilaabo Abriil 15.
1. Asalka iyo ujeeddada soo-saaridda Siyaasadda Lacagta Mareykanka
Ilaalinta warshadaha maxalliga ah iyo isuduwaha istiraatiijiyadeed
Sababta rasmiga ah ee Mareykanka si ay u soo rogaan canshuur dhimis waqtigan waa "in la xakameeyo dhalanroggii suuqa caalamiga ah ee ay ka dhigto awoodaha guud ee Shiinaha ee Alumidiinum", laakiin caqliga aasaasiga ah ee ay la yeeshaan istiraatiijiyaddooda dib-u-celinta. Sanadkii 2025, Sharciga dhimista sicir-bararka ee Mareykanka ayaa si buuxda loo fulin doonaa. Baahida loo qabo aluminium gawaarida tamarta cusub, photovostoltas iyo warshadaha kale ayaa qalliinka iyo aluminikada korantada ee elecininimka ee korantada ku kiciya xisaabtanka Mareykanka oo keliya 5% xogta adduunka), waxayna si aad ah ugu tiirsan tahay soo dejinta. Iyada oo loo marayo caqabadaha Triff, Mareykanka wuxuu isku dayaa inuu ku qasbo shirkadaha hoos udhaca ah si ay u iibsadaan ilaha aluminium ee gudaha, iyagoo wiiqaya jagada ugu weyn Shiinaha ee silsiladda warshadaha adduunka ee adduunka.
Tartanka Kheyraadka ee Isbadalka Cagaaran ee Caraha
Aluminium, oo ah shey muhiim ah oo loogu talagalay isbadal khafiif ah oo isbadal leh (xaddiga aluminium loo isticmaalo gawaarida korantada waa 2-3 jeer oo gawaarida shidaalka ah), ayaa noqday diiradda Tartanka Kheyraadka Istail ee ka dhex jira awoodaha ugu waaweyn. Tallaabada Mareykanka ayaa loogu talagalay in lagu hubiyo nabadgelyada ashyaa'da ceyriinka ah ee silsiladda warshadaha tamarta cusub, iyo in lala kaashado silsiladda sahayda ee 'aluminium', waxay ku riixi doontaa silsiladda sahayda aluminium si ay ula wareegaan xulafada sida Kanada iyo Bariga Dhexe.
2. Falcelinta suuqa iyo hababka gudbinta
Iibinta argagaxa-gaaban
Shuruudaha qaaliga ah ee si toos ah u saamaynaya rajooyinka ganacsiga caalamiga ah. Sida soosaarka aluminiumka ugu weyn adduunka (58% waxsoosaarka 2024), dhoofinta Shiinaha ee loo dhoofiyo koontada Mareykanka ee 15% wadarta guud ee dhoofinta. Suuqa ayaa ka walwalsan in alaabada aluminium Shiinaha ay lumin doonaan suuqa Mareykanka sababtuna tahay canshuur-dhaafka, taasoo horseedaysa in kor u kacayo filashooyinka muddada-gaaban ee loo yaqaan muddada-gaaban. Isku darka siidaynta xad-dhaafka ah ee dareenka ka dib fasaxa Dambiilaha Qoring, isbeddelada qiimaha ayaa la kordhiyay.
Xaraashka isku-darka suuqa iyo wareejinta alaabada
Xogta ayaa muujinaya in LME aluminiumka 'LME aluminium uu darey 120,000 tan oo ah hal maalin, saddex sano sare. Sababta ugu weyn ayaa ah in ganacsatada si deg deg ah loo wareejiyo iyadoo ah aluminisum-ka asal ahaan loo xilsaaray suuqa Mareykanka ee loo dhoofiyo sababtuna tahay wax lagu iibsado sabab la xiriirta kalsooni darrada ah ee loo yaqaan '"entback----price price price price price'.
Isweydaarsiga qiimeynta rmb ayaa kordhinaya cadaadis
Saamiga halista ee RMB ee RMB ee ka dhanka ah doolarka Mareykanka oo ay hoos u dhacday 0.8% isla maalintaas, oo ka sii daadanaya qiimayaasha 'LME aluminium' ee lagu quudhsado doolarka Mareykanka. Isla mar ahaantaana, faa'iidooyinka dhoofinta shirkadaha aluminium ee Shiinaha ayaa si weyn u jabay sababtoo ah labajibbaaranaha isdhaafsiga sicirka iyo canshuuraha.
3. Saamaynta muddada-dheer: Silsiladda sahayda adduunka ee aluminium ayaa dardar gelinaya dib-u-dejinta
Qaabka ganacsiga ee gobolka ayaa la sameeyay
Carruursanayaasha Treiff ee Mareykanka ayaa ku qasbi doona qulqulka aluminium-ka si ay u kala qulqulaan si ay u kala baxaan Yurub waxay kordhin kartaa dhoofinta alumininium ruushka (in kasta oo ay jiraan halis siyaasadeed); Suuqa Mareykanka ah waxaa xukuma iibiyaasha maxalliga ah sida Kanada iyo Brazil. Faa'iidada faa iidada ee qiimaha qashinka warshadaha ayaa loo gudbin karaa ilaa xagga sare iyo xagga hoose. Alaabooyin Mareykan ah ayaa sheegay inay raadinayaan heshiisyo lacageed oo muddo dheer ah aluminium-ka aluminium aluminium-ka ceybiga ee Shiinaha ay u baahan yihiin kordhinta saamiga dhoofinta ee alaabada lagu daray ee ku-darista qiimaha-sare (sida aluminium loo yaqaan 'aeminisum'.
Cagaaran cagaaran iyo cabashooyinka kaarboon kaarboon
Tilmaamaha kaarboon-ka-habaarta xadka (CBAM) in EU-da ay qorshaynayso in ay tahay 2026 ay sii kordhin karto qarashka dhoofinta shirkadaha aluminium ee Shiinaha (china electrolytic chision aluminium kaarboon per ton waa saddex jeer oo Yurub ah). Qiimaha aluminium ee caalamiga ah ayaa laga yaabaa inuu ku kala duwanaado laba nidaam oo qiimaha ah: "kaarboon sare" iyo "kaarboon hoose".
4. Saadaasha qiimaha qiimaha mustaqbalka
Muddo-gaaban (1-3 bilood)
Ka dib markii suuqa suuqa uu dejiyo, qiimaha aluminiumka ayaa laga yaabaa inuu si farsamo ahaan dib ugu celiyo farsamo ahaan, laakiin xoogga dib-u-soo-noqoshada wuxuu ku xiran yahay hirgelinta dhabta ah ee canshuurka Mareykanka. Haddii shirkadaha Shiinaha laga gudbiyo cashuur-dhaafka dib-u-dhoofinta ganacsiga (sida ka baaraandegida Mexico iyo Vietnam), cadaadiska saadka qaarkood waa la yareyn karaa.
Xilliga Dhex-dhexaadka ah (6-12 bilood)
Isbedelka hoose ee xarunta qiimaha ayaa adag in la beddelo. Marka loo eego xisaabinta Moodel Goldman Sachs, xaashiyaha Mareykanka ayaa u horseedi kara koror dhan 1.2 milyan oo dheeraad ah oo dheeri ah oo ku jirta suuqa adduunka ee adduunka, oo u dhiganta in la isticmaalo $ 1,800 halkii ton (hadda qiyaastii $ 2,200).
Muddo dheer (2-5 sano)
Baahiyaha tamarta cusub (gaar ahaan aluminium loogu talagalay baakadaha baykabka batariga ee soke iyo kaydinta hydrogen iyo qalabka gaadiidka) ayaa noqon doona doorsoomaha aasaasiga ah. Haddii heerka koritaanka sanadlaha ah ee loo baahan yahay ee loo baahan yahay 4% (3.1% sanadkii 2024), oo ay weheliso siyaasada beddelka awoodda Shiinaha (30% ee ciribtirka awoodda dib-u-eega), qiimaha aluminium-ka ayaa la filayaa inuu ku soo laabto kanaalka kor u kaca 2027.
Gunaanad: Fursadaha istiraatiijiyadeed ee jahwareerka
Miisaanka ku jira qiimaha aluminiumka Markan kaliya microkosm ma ahan microposm ciyaaraha geropolitic, laakiin sidoo kale waxay muujineysaa xanuunka dib-u-eegista xanuunka ka dib markii ay ka dhigan tahay kala-guurka tamar ee adduunka. Shirkadaha Shiinaha, dardargelinta qaabeynta tikniyoolajiyada kaarboon-yar-yar (sida aluminium}} aluminium ah oo loo yaqaan '} aluminium aluminium', oo dib loo warshadeeyo aluminium-ka kuleylka ah ee lala yeesho waddammada xubnaha ka ah ee loo yaqaan 'RCEP', iyo kor u qaadista tartanka alaabada dhammaysata ayaa fure u noqon doonta wareegga. Heerka caalamiga ah, sida loo dhiso nidaam maamul xumo badan oo maamulka Kheyraadka ah ee tixgelinaya badbaadada iyo hufnaanta labadaba waxay noqon doontaa su'aal laga jawaabayaa si looga fogaado "Dagaalkii Qalinka ee Kheyraadka."
